Interconnection queue analysis

Most queued megawatts are not going to be built

We parse the interconnection queues every month and separate the capacity that has posted money from the capacity that is holding a place in line. The gap is larger than almost anyone plans around.

ERCOT storage queue 230.9 GW 1,187 planned projects, July 2026 filing.

Financial security posted 36.6 GW 213 projects with capital committed and notice to proceed.

Queue positions only 194.3 GW 974 projects with nothing at risk. 84 percent of the headline.

What we actually do

the filter, not the feed

Interconnection queue data is free. ERCOT publishes it monthly and every developer, consultancy and lender in the market has the same file. The reason it is not useful as published is that a queue position and a committed project look identical in the headline number.

A signed interconnection agreement is a scheduling document. Posting financial security and receiving notice to proceed is the first point at which a developer has capital at risk and a contractual obligation to build. We read that distinction across every project in the queue, every month, and publish what survives it.

The work is not data engineering. Milestone fields are inconsistent between operators, interconnecting entities are single-purpose LLCs that obscure who actually controls capacity, and registered nameplate is an upper bound rather than a plan. Reading the file correctly requires knowing what each milestone commits a developer to.

Texas has paused pending data center interconnections for a project-by-project audit that examines each developer's generation strategy. Every large load in the state now has to demonstrate how it will actually be supplied.

Commercial operation dates decay with distance

ERCOT storage queue, share of claimed capacity funded

Claimed COD	Capacity claimed	Funded	Share funded	Read
2026	11.5 GW	6.5 GW	57%	Near-term cohort, mostly real.
2027	54.1 GW	14.8 GW	27%	Roughly a quarter is committed.
2028	88.3 GW	12.6 GW	14%	Largest cohort in the queue, 86 percent unfunded today.
2029	65.3 GW	2.0 GW	3%	An expression of interest, not a supply forecast.

A load that needs firm power in 2028 is planning against a cohort that is 86 percent unfunded as of today, before interconnection studies consume much of the intervening time.

Reports

published without a gate

Permian Basin · Q3 2026 The whole Permian has sixteen funded projects Sixteen counties, 125 queued projects, 26.6 GW of stated intent, 3.3 GW with money committed. The Delaware sub-basin runs at 5.3 percent. Includes the complete list of every funded project in the basin and the developer concentration behind each county. Read → ERCOT · Q3 2026 Six of every seven queued megawatts are not real All 1,187 planned projects in the July 2026 ERCOT storage filing, filtered for financial security. Includes county rankings before and after the filter, and the counties whose position collapses entirely. Read →

What we sell

fixed scope, fixed price

Syndicated quarterly $6,000/yr The Funded Capacity Quarterly for a named market. Every project, every milestone, every quarter.

Site screen $28,000 Your candidate counties ranked on funded capacity, developer concentration and timeline risk. Four weeks.

Single county report $12,000 One county or region in depth, delivered in two weeks.

Quarterly monitor $4,500/qtr Ongoing tracking of a named market after a screen, with movement flagged against the prior filing.

We do not bill hourly and we do not scope custom engagements. Every product above has a defined boundary, and the boundary is what makes the price hold.

Contact

we reply to everything

If you are siting a load, underwriting a project, or trying to work out whether the capacity near your site is real, write and describe the situation. If the answer is short we will just tell you.

michelle.e.humes@gmail.com

Firm Power Research is an independent analyst practice. We do not develop projects, broker sites, or take positions in any asset we write about.

Sources and limits

Primary source. The ERCOT GIS Report, published monthly through the ERCOT Market Information System. Figures on this page are from the July 2026 edition, parsed on 27 August 2026.
Coverage. That filing covers battery energy storage, standalone and co-located with solar, wind and thermal. It is not the entire ERCOT generation queue, and we do not present it as one.
Funded means the ERCOT record shows financial security posted and notice to proceed provided. It is the strongest commitment signal in the public file. It is not a guarantee of completion.
Capacity is registered nameplate as filed by the interconnecting entity. Developers have reason to register at the high end, so queued capacity reads as an upper bound.
Developer concentration is understated wherever a parent operates through single-purpose entities. Resolving parentage is separate work and we say so when we have not done it.
Not included in any figure here: transmission constraint modelling, congestion or basis risk, or whether an interconnecting substation can physically serve an adjacent large load.