Firm Power Research
ERCOT · Q3 2026 · Storage queue

The ERCOT storage queue after the commitment filter

Texas has 231 GW of battery storage in its interconnection queue. 15.8 percent shows both public commitment fields used in this screen. Here is how counties rank before and after that filter.

In the queue230.9 GW1,187 planned projects across every ERCOT zone.
Posted financial security36.6 GW213 projects. Records showing both selected commitment fields.
Outside the screen194.3 GW974 records not showing both selected commitment signals.

Raw queue nameplate and the subset showing public commitment signals answer different questions. The filing supports a first-pass diligence screen; it does not establish deliverable supply.

The reality funnel

share of queued megawatts surviving each milestone
In the queue
230.9 GW100.0%
Interconnection agreement signed
59.4 GW25.7%
Financial security posted, notice to proceed
36.6 GW15.8%
Approved for energization
5.0 GW2.2%
Approved for synchronization
4.4 GW1.9%

We use financial security plus notice to proceed as a stronger public-record commitment signal. The gap between signed capacity and the 36.6 GW showing both fields is a diligence question, not proof that the remainder will fail.

County rankings invert under the filter

top 16 by queued capacity, re-ranked by funded capacity
queued capacity funded capacity rank move shown against funded-capacity rank
#County Queued vs funded Queued GW Funded GW Real Proj (funded) Rank move
1 Brazoria 7.4 2.4 33% 45 (11) holds
2 Harris 6.3 0.5 8% 28 (4) ↓7
3 Mitchell 6.1 0.0 0% 12 (0) ↓12
4 Bexar 5.0 0.5 11% 20 (4) ↓4
5 Jack 4.9 0.8 16% 13 (3) ↓1
6 Ellis 4.4 0.2 5% 17 (1) ↓7
7 Wise 4.0 0.0 0% 10 (0) ↓9
8 Robertson 3.9 0.6 16% 20 (3) holds
9 Wharton 3.8 1.0 25% 23 (5) holds
10 Milam 3.8 0.4 11% 18 (3) ↓1
11 San Patricio 3.7 0.5 13% 19 (3) holds
12 Cameron 3.5 0.9 24% 23 (7) holds
13 Reeves 3.4 0.2 7% 9 (1) holds
14 Scurry 3.4 0.0 0% 13 (1) holds
15 Matagorda 3.2 1.3 41% 19 (7) holds
16 Borden 3.2 1.0 31% 11 (2) holds

The finding that changes a siting decision

Mitchell County ranks third in Texas by queued capacity at 6.1 GW and has no project showing both screen signals. Wise County ranks seventh at 4.0 GW, also with none. A screen based only on headline queue data would rank both highly; the commitment fields identify a material diligence gap.

Commercial operation dates decay with distance

claimed capacity by year, share funded
COD 202657%
6.5 of 11.5 GW funded
COD 202727%
14.8 of 54.1 GW funded
COD 202814%
12.6 of 88.3 GW funded
COD 20293%
2.0 of 65.3 GW funded

The largest single cohort in the queue claims a 2028 commercial operation date: 88.3 GW across 462 projects. The public filing shows that 86 percent does not yet display both commitment signals used in our screen. That is a reason for deeper diligence, not a forecast of available power.

The 2029 cohort is 3 percent screened under this method. The raw queue should not be treated as a supply forecast.

What this does not tell you

the demand side is deliberately opaque

Generation and storage interconnection is a public filing. Large load interconnection is not, in any comparable form. ERCOT created a separate process for loads of 75 MW and above, Batch Zero under PGRR145, and publishes the forms and eligibility rules rather than a roster of who is in it.

That asymmetry is the central problem for anyone siting a large load in Texas. You can see, in detail, every megawatt of supply that intends to arrive and exactly how much of it is real. You cannot see, from public filings, who else is queued for the same substation capacity. Estimating the demand side requires triangulation from utility filings, county tax abatement records, water district permits and transmission service provider planning documents.

Method and limitations